Germany’s incoming chancellor didn’t wait for the outcome of his country’s election on Sunday to announce a new era for Europe.
Friedrich Merz expressed skepticism about the US commitment to this continent’s well-being, wondering aloud if NATO’s future is uncertain. He urged Europe to strengthen its own defense capabilities as soon as possible.
The tone coming from a close US ally – and from Friedrich Merz, a well-known advocate for strong Atlantic ties – would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.
It’s a dramatic change. That might sound like an exaggeration, but what we’re seeing in US-European relations is unlike anything that’s happened in the 80 years since World War Two ended.
Top European governments have been caught off guard by the Trump administration’s hint that it may withdraw its security guarantees to Europe, a commitment that has been in place since the end of World War II.
On Sunday evening, Friedrich Merz compared the United States under Donald Trump to Russia, which is perceived as a security threat to Europe. He stated that Europe is now being pressured by both countries, prompting the need for immediate action.
The Prime Minister of the UK is scheduled to travel to Washington on Thursday, a trip that follows a visit to the US capital by French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday.
Friedrich Merz admits to feeling a sense of FOMO – a fear of missing out – implying that Germany should have a role in this week’s events. As one of Europe’s leading powers, Berlin should be at the table, alongside France and the UK.
As the US and Russia are now engaging in direct talks, albeit not directly with Ukraine, it seems like the world is reverting to classic great power diplomacy.
Germany has been relatively absent from the European and global scene for some time now. The outgoing government here was weakened and sidetracked by intense internal conflicts. This frustration was shared by German voters, who were eager for the government to focus on the economy and immigration issues, and by European allies, who were pressing for action on Russia, security, and defense matters.
Merz emphasizes that Germany’s top priority is to strengthen its international relationships again.
The US is the largest provider of military aid to Ukraine, and the country is the second-largest donor.
Merz wants to continue that support, but, in contrast to France and the UK, he’s been hesitant to consider sending troops to Ukraine to support a potential ceasefire there.
Germany’s history in Ukraine has been one of slow action, but ultimately providing more assistance than its European neighbors – so a “no” to current aid doesn’t necessarily mean a permanent refusal to send troops or participate in a future European “reassurance force” in Ukraine.
For the time being, the Germans are most concerned about the 35,000 American soldiers stationed in their country, who they feel provide them with a sense of security.
It’s uncommon for foreign policy to be a major voting issue in US elections, but in Germany this weekend, concerns about peace in Europe and security were a major concern for voters, right up there with the economy and immigration.
In November, Germany’s interior ministry stated that it is compiling a list of possible bunkers that could serve as emergency shelters for civilians.
Germans feel a sense of vulnerability due to Russia’s proximity, although Ukraine is geographically distant from Germany.
The amount of military equipment that Germany has sent to Ukraine is a point of interest. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which uses the “Germany First” slogan, has advocated for Berlin to distance itself from Kyiv and re-establish ties with Russia, a stance similar to that of Donald Trump.
Some people in Germany believe that if Russia were to seriously destabilize Europe, it might consider launching a long-range missile attack against one of the three major European powers.
France and the UK possess nuclear capabilities, whereas Germany does not. Additionally, Germany’s conventional military is significantly undermanned and underfunded, causing frustration among its European allies, making Germany feel vulnerable to potential threats.
The situation is even more concerning if President Trump were to withdraw active-duty military personnel from Germany.
He has committed to significantly decreasing the number of U.S. troops stationed in Europe overall.
The deep-seated feeling of insecurity at home led Friedrich Merz to propose last week that Germany consider forming a European nuclear alliance with France and Britain to replace US nuclear protection.
It’s an idea that’s often touted on the campaign trail, but in practice, it’s a concept that’s extremely challenging – involving considerations of capabilities, level of dedication, and who’s in charge.
The reality check: Friedrich Merz will require a substantial amount of money to implement his plans for securing Germany and Europe, and Germany’s economy is currently in a state of recession.
He also needs to reach an agreement with the coalition partner, or partners, that will form the next German government, as well as with other European countries, such as the UK.
They might not want to be overly critical of the United States.
This election could signal a more assertive leadership role for Germany. But is the rest of Europe prepared to follow?
